Monday, January 26, 2015

Narrative Fallacy

Decision makers get stuck in a memory loop and can only predict the future as a reflection of the past -- this dynamic is referred to as the “narrative fallacy”, where you see the future as merely a slight variation on yesterday’s news.

-- Daniel Kahneman

A challenge for all of us, I suspect, in many domains of our lives.  We tend to see what we want to see.  It is helpful to know that what we want to see is largely influenced by what we have seen.